Mcdaniel actually trails Cochran by one point in the only independent poll heading into the run-off election being held on june 24th. However a democrat poll has Mcdaniel up 8% and a republican poll has him leading by 12%. The conventional thinking is that Mcdaniel has more hard core supporters and since turnout is typically low for run-offs that will give Mcdaniel an edge. I agree with that thinking and I give Mcdaniel a strong edge about 52.6 - 47.4.
Cochran has the establishment behind him and some of his backers say that his supporters took the election lightly and many who didn't come out before will come out now. But he had the establishment behind him before and a poll did come out more than two weeks before the election showing Mcdaniel in the lead by 4%. They should have done their internal polling also showing the election was going to be tight.
I do have to admit that a lot of people don't show up for primaries and some of his loyal supporters may have taken the eleciton lightly but it won't be enough to overcome the support that Mcdaniel now seems to have.
Polls for Mississippi runoff close 8pm eastern.
Get Live results here http://www.wdam.com/category/249639/2014-mississippi-congressional-election-results